Friday, March 9, 2018

Italian General Election

Sunday was a very crowded day on the streets of Motto Sant'Anastasia.  People were gathering at the local school to vote in their national election. The streets were packed and parking was at a premium.
I couldn't find any information regarding voter turnout but I am confident the numbers were high in Motto. Here is a report from a national newspaper and what the results of this election might mean.


Italian General Election
March 4, 2018
Italian general elections were held on March 4, 2018. The election results point to a hung parliament, with no party or coalition winning enough votes to form a government. The election came against an improving economic picture and Italian equities have performed strongly over the last year, outpacing many other developed markets including the broader Eurozone and the U.S. We offer the market and political implications of the election below.
  • The strong performance of populist parties in Italy is balanced against Germany forming a new government. We see scope for pressure on Italian and peripheral Eurozone bonds.
  • A government involving populist parties might take a confrontational stance against the EU and loosen fiscal policy. We see an increased probability of another election this year.
  • At the EU summit this month, the UK will likely seek agreement on a transition deal that avoids a cliff-edge Brexit in March 2019.
Results of the Italian election point to a hung parliament, with no party or coalition winning enough votes to form a government. The strong showing of populist parties complicates the Italian political outlook but is balanced against a new government forming in Germany.
The right wing, Eurosceptic Northern League (Lega Nord) party, led by Matteo Salvini, is emerging stronger than Silvio Berlusconi's center-right Forward Italy (Forza Italia) party within the center-right coalition, which also includes the far-right Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) party. The independent and also Eurosceptic Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle or M5S) led by Luigi di Maio has beaten poll forecasts and won a greater share of the vote than expected - not enough to form a government, but enough to make it a linchpin in any potential government. Matteo Renzi's center-left Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) appears to have fared the worst.

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